paul ryan to do since he's not going to be vice president. what they want paul ryan to do once he and mitt romney lose the election next week. i sort of can't believe it didn't get more attention when it came out yesterday afternoon. not only must it have caused some dyspepsia inside the romney campaign but it's also the purest and most direct rebuttal of that campaign's rather heroic efforts right now to project some superhuman confidence about how much they supposedly think they are going to win on tuesday. joining us is a man who is in the business of knowing who is going to win, nate silver, editor of the 538 calculus blog for "the new york times." he's also the author of the book "the signal and the noise" why most predictions fail, but some don't. thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> a lot of headlines say that since mitt romney is going to pennsylvania, that must mean that pennsylvania is in play. from the numbers, do you believe pennsylvania is in play? >> you had the list of 24 polls and none had romney ahead. there hav